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About Dragon Pearl
The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
What is Dragon Pearl?
Closing of the transaction is targeted for the first quarter of 2027.
Following closing, Merkur intends to file the mandatory tender offer with the AMF in the first half of 2027, with the offer launch contingent on the regulator’s clearance.
The transaction remains subject to customary closing conditions, including receipt of all necessary regulatory approvals.
How to play Dragon Pearl
Dale Nally, Minister of Service Alberta and Red Tape Reduction, has repeatedly emphasized that the primary objective of launching the province’s regulated market on July 13 was to offer consumers safe alternatives to illicit offshore sites operating out of jurisdictions like Malta and Curaçao.
“Standing still was not the responsible choice,” Nally said when the market launched. “Albertans were already gambling. What we’re putting in place is a regulated market that will put player safety and player responsibility first.”
“At the end of the day, this is not about revenue. This is about channelization,” Nally added. “How much of that black market can we channelize into the legal, regulated market?”
