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“We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself,” observe the analysts. “Further, perp futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single stock perps.”
Some exchange operators already filed plans to introduce KPI-linked event contracts. Those derivatives would be tied to metrics such as corporate earnings or, in more nuanced cases, Apple iPhone shipments or Tesla deliveries — just two examples — in a given quarter.
While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.
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“Where we’ll revisit the targets at the full-year results, I think that will probably be the logical time to more explicitly factor Brazil into any revised targets we might potentially issue at that point in time. But I think that should only enhance how the business is currently doing and frankly, enhance probably what the current market expectations are for the group in the years ahead.”
The ongoing dispute between Evolution and Playtech continues to rumble on.
Playtech commissioned intelligence firm Black Cube to investigate Evolution’s activities in 2020, with the resulting dossier alleging Evolution supplied games into banned and sanctioned markets.
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Separately, the two senators wrote a formal letter to a bevy of pro sport leagues last October requesting additional details on the leagues’ interaction with integrity monitors on suspicious wagering.
Despite Tuesday’s memo, it is not immediately clear if any professional sports league commissioners are willing to testify before Congress on some of the most problematic aspects of sports betting.
Matt is primarily responsible for long-form feature coverage on complex sports betting scandals. He also provides coverage on finance, M&A and other technological developments.